Arbitrage and hold

Type two American prices and a total to split. If they arb, the page splits that total so both sides return the same profit. If not, you get the hold and fair prices, with no stakes.

EdgeTilt doesn't place either bet.

The formula

Each American price is turned into a decimal. Add 1 / decimal A and 1 / decimal B to get the combined implied probability. Under 100%, the prices arb. Each stake is the total times that side's share of the sum. Locked profit is the smaller payout minus the total.

Hold here is (combined implied - 1) times 100. Return is locked profit divided by the total. They aren't the same percent with the sign flipped.

Not an arb

-110 and -110, total $100.

Hold 4.76%. Combined implied 104.76%. Fair A -100. Fair B -100. No stakes shown. The line is: "No arb. Combined implied is 104.76%. An arb needs that under 100%."

An arb

-105 and +120, total $250.

Hold -3.33%. Combined implied 96.67%. Fair A -113. Fair B +113. Locked profit +$8.60. Return 3.44%. Stake A $132.45. Stake B $117.55.

The line is: "These prices arb. The split locks the same profit either way."

Hold is -3.33% and return is 3.44%. Both are right. They measure different things.

Limits

The numbers assume both bets fill at the prices you typed, with no commission and no line move while you click. Sportsbooks may limit accounts or void bets. The split covers the two opposite sides of one two-way result. Different settlement rules, or a middle, make it a different bet.